We just received the updated monthly GDP data from S&P Global. Real economic activity contracted -0.7% MoM in May and has now been flat or down in five of the past six months. Yet, Jay Powell refers to this as “solid” and investors seem to believe him (like they did with Ben Bernanke in 2008). Over the six months to May, real GDP has shrunk modestly (as the Beige Book told us a few weeks back), by a -0.7% annualized rate. The three-month trend is -0.1% at an annual pace. Over the past four decades, only in June 2022, August 2012, June 2011, and January 2011 was the economy NOT in an official recession with both the three- and six-month trend below the zero line. In other words, the odds that we are, in fact, in a recession right at this very moment are over 90%. Ed Yardeni told CNBC last Friday that the economy has become recession-proof, but that is not being supported by the data. As for the stock market, he may well be onto something: we have either reached a bizarre state where the economy no longer matters to the S&P 500 or a case where denial is winning out over reason.