Bitcoin has been less volatile than Nvidia for over three years now. Even with Bitcoin pushing to new all-time highs, its realized volatility is still declining. It’s no longer an outlier. Bitcoin now sits comfortably in the same volatility range as large-cap growth stocks.

ETFs and public companies with Bitcoin treasuries have become major players in the market. Over the past five years, their combined Bitcoin holdings have increased ninefold, now accounting for more than 11% of the total supply. These are the actors worth watching when tracking demand.

June’s CPI report isn’t encouraging but tariffs aren’t the problem. The real issue is that core inflation, especially core services, ticked higher. That points to persistent structural pressure, likely tied to a still-tight labor market. This kind of reading doesn’t support the case for the Fed to accelerate rate cuts.

Bitcoin flows and momentum are running hot. Following last week’s breakout, price has entered overbought territory and ETF flows are now well above typical short-term ranges. That kind of setup often leads to a short-term pause or minor reversal. But the broader picture remains bullish.

The Bitcoin ETFs recorded one of their strongest single-day inflows on record last week. That surge didn’t just help push Bitcoin to a new all-time high, it also triggered a shift in ETF flows from a neutral regime to a strong inflows regime. Historically, that regime correlates with positive daily returns and tends to persist for several days, sometimes a full trading week. That gives the current rally a strong base of support.

The minutes from the June FOMC meeting show the Fed remains cautious, with the Fed Communication Index holding steady on the hawkish side. They’re flagging emerging inflation risks, including the uncertainty around potential new tariffs. Despite that, projections for two rate cuts this year haven’t changed. As long as the Fed stays the course, that’s not a problem for Bitcoin.

This Bitcoin breakout is backed by strong ETF inflows. Last Thursday, Bitcoin registered one of its largest one-day inflows since the launch of the ETFs last year. That’s a clear sign this move is supported by real demand.

The U.S. debt keeps climbing and now the interest bill is surging too. Debt has grown by $1.5T per year on average for two decades. But today, the average interest rate on that debt is at its highest since the 2008 crisis. That’s why capital is flowing into hard assets, especially Bitcoin and gold.

ETF flows continue to support a Bitcoin breakout. As of today, our ETF flows model puts the expected price of Bitcoin at $119K, and the range of likely outcomes is still trending higher.

Bitcoin remains firmly in the risk-on asset category. Over the past 12 months, it’s maintained a moderate correlation to the NASDAQ 100, right around its five-year average. At the same time, it has stayed largely uncorrelated to gold and bonds. That’s why this risk-on environment is a strong setup for a breakout toward a new all-time high.