The minutes from the June FOMC meeting show the Fed remains cautious, with the Fed Communication Index holding steady on the hawkish side. They’re flagging emerging inflation risks, including the uncertainty around potential new tariffs. Despite that, projections for two rate cuts this year haven’t changed. As long as the Fed stays the course, that’s not a problem for Bitcoin.

Over the past three years, risk assets including Bitcoin, have consistently priced in the direction of policy, not the exact timing. If the path is toward lower rates, even on a delayed timeline, investors have proved they are willing to wait. Follow @ecoinometrics for more data-driven insights on Bitcoin and macro.