Fascinating insights on tech investing and macro from a few decades of experience. Here is what I found most intriguing from Coatue's 100 page deck 🧵

1/ Tech concentration at ~40% of US equity market cap is not the anomaly ppl make it out to be. In mid 20th century energy and materials was ~50%, 19th century industrials and transport was ~70%.

2/ The issue with tech concentration is drawdowns are frequent and violent.

3/ BTC is of increasing interest to institutional investors bc of its outperformance vs Nasdaq and gold, and its recent drawdowns are more muted than historically.

4/ We're at an AI inflection point - MSFT Q1 earnings call "We processed 100 trillion tokens this quarter, up 5x y-o-y, including a record 50 trillion tokens last month alone." and "expect AI capacity constraints beyond June" - Cloud capex estimates continue to rise. Today's 2025 estimates are +70% from where they were in Jan '24. - ChatGPT growing faster than anything ever seen - Share of US businesses with an AI related subscription has 3x'ed since Q4'22 - Took 6-8 years of investment to reach "SaaS Golden Age" we're only 3 years into AI spend

5/ Assess if you're in a market crisis or correction, they're different. Liberation Day seems more like a correction.

6/ AI will drive a massive productivity boost, which will reduce debt/GDP more than consensus estimates and keep US T 10 yr at 3.5%