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Brad Setser
Brad Setser
21.7. klo 03.49·
Well, most goods that China exports also could (in theory) be sold at home ... But will push back a bit more broadly. So far at least, China's exports have held up well in the face of the tariffs ... 1/
Robin Brooks
Robin Brooks21.7. klo 03.33
China is in a tough spot. It's exports to the US are down -24% q/q in Jun '25. Exporters have only 2 options: (i) transship to the US; (ii) export goods to other countries at a discount to generate demand. Either way, a big hit to profitability and a deflationary shock for China.
The export price data is volatile, and there isn't yet a number for June -- but q2 export prices (into the tariffs) look up a bit v late last year 2/
Export volume growth has slowed a bit true -- but it likely would have slowed even absent the tariffs just b/c no countries trade can grow that much faster than overall trade for too long. q2 estimated export growth was still close to 10% y/y, way faster than WGDP growth! 3/
The more Trump raises tariffs on everyone else (Vietnam, Korea, Japan and the EU are all being pushed to accept 20% tariffs + 25% in key sectors & there are new treats v Canada ... ) the less significant the 30% tariff on China is ... 4/
And generally speaking the 232 tariffs (autos, steel, pharma, planes and chips coming) impact US allies more than China ... (in theory if there is a deal on fentanyl at the coming summit and no change to the base tariff the tariff on China could also fall) 5/
China's customs goods surplus keeps on rising (supported by a 20% real exchange rate depreciation in the last 3 years) and reached 6% of GDP in q2 ... 6/
And measures of momentum -- even in the nominal data, which has had the headwind of falling y/y export prices until recently -- suggest that China's export boom hasn't yet petered out ... 7/
Take EVs -- where export growth accelerated again in 2025. China now exports significantly more EVs (over 3m a year using the q2 numbers) than Tesla produces globally ... 8/
Yes, there are still forward looking challenges -- but China's biggest problem isn't on the export side, it is on the still stalled domestic side ... 9/9
@robin_j_brooks RER impacting exports with a lag and dynamics around auto exports (which aren't to the US) are both consistent with our (macro) economic intuition as well ...
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