“One notion we reject strongly is that the migrant workforce already is rapidly shrinking:” @PantheonMacro report. Payrolls data “pour cold water on the notion that the workforce of irregular migrants is falling sharply.”

BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky: "Party Like it's 1999. As we discussed last week, the Nasdaq 100 has now gone 60 trading days without closing below its 20 DMA, the second-longest streak in its history (back to 1985). The longest was ended in early 1999."

Betting markets are showing a growing chance that Trump will fire Powell this year, as per Polymarket:

Some charts that are emblematic of the head-spinning nature of 2025: Investors just recorded the biggest 3-month rise in risk appetite on record, according to Bank of America's July fund manager survey (1/3)

Long-term yields are surging around the world, with German 30-yr rates at the highest since 2023 and 30-yr yields in Japan surging toward new records. The uncomfortable truth: no politician wants to pay for spending with cuts & taxes, & bond markets are getting nervous.

China's trade surplus ended June at a new record, with exports surging more than expected even as shipments to the US fell 16.1%. Chinese firms compensated for the pullback in US business by exporting more to Southeast Asian nations.

In recent years, the value of the dollar was driven by rate differentials, with foreign investors drawn to the US’s stronger growth and higher risk-free income. That relationship has broken down since April. Chart from Apollo’s Torsten Slok:

Nvidia's market capitalization exceeds Germany's by nearly $1 trillion. The size and success of this giant, and the other US tech behemoths, underscores how much the AI trade can overwhelm the market's response to week-to-week fluctuations in economic data and policy headlines.

Morgan Stanley's Matt Hornbach tallied up the net issuance from G7 nations in the next month or so. The US is the biggest debt seller with more than $220 billion of net sales in the next five weeks, but the EU is catching up with a net sales of 93.8 billion euros in the period.

It's been the worst decade for developed-market government bond returns in modern history, as per DB's Jim Reid. This has pushed yields higher as governments keep selling bonds to plug fiscal gaps. The US plans a net issuance of $223.2 billion in the next five weeks alone: MS