Crypto is just one version of the same trade, over and over again, yet the people left in the market generally haven't appreciated it. Instead, they move on from the old trade, forget about it, then go through the same discovery process all over again. The trade very simply: 1. New financial engineering structure comes to be 2. It attracts enough capital to justify people copying it 3. the strategy does well with an increasing participation until it fully saturates 4. strategy stops performing, whole strategy complex collapses The premise that someone can create a box, put a dollar in the box, and then list a public instrument for the box and it will trade > $1 is nonsensical. That's not to say it can't happen, just at a mature state, the trade doesn't exist. So what ends up happening if an instrument (MSTR) trades at a premium for a large enough time? It invites a million copycats. These copycats trade at a premium because 1. insiders are locked 2. there's speculative interest in trading the instrument. If a treasury company initially deviates +/- 50% from nav, management will start to trade around these key levels, which from a game theoretical perspective, justifies a trader taking the same trades, but within a narrower band. Over time, due to this + selling instruments that better facilitate this gamma scalping, the vol around NAV compresses and the game dies. It's not difficult to understand this game nor model out how it works at maturity. The only question is how long it takes to get there and whether there's money to be made along the way