I need to set the record clean on something important around the JPOW controversy. Last year up to May NFP prints were running hot (> 118 K for 14 consecutive months), then June, July & August all printed < 100 K & UR shot-up to 4.2% 1/3

At the time, that growth scare led to a marked drop in long rates (US10s dropped by 90 bp). Many important folks started worrying that the Fed was getting a bit behind the labor market deterioration curve. FOMC shared that growth scare anguish. 2/3

This was the backdrop to the 50 bp rate cut in September. It’s true that this cut carried a bad political bias optics (I was among the first to say it). But in no way was this a politically motivated decision. The fact pattern is very clear. 3/3