I actually think this is real progress. The Commission has (I hope) recognized that it can no longer make do with pretend deals that offer the illusion of progress without resolving the very real underlying problem ... 1/

Europe (and Germany) has sort of gotten mugged by trade reality. German exports of autos to China, for example, are down by about 50% relative to their levels in 2014 -- 0r 2022 ... 2/

The slump in German exports to China over the past couple of years is actually bigger, relative to German GDP, than the slump in German exports to the US during the great financial crisis 3/

And while Germany has gotten hit far harder than the rest of Europe, the slump in European exports to China over the last few years is bigger, relative to Europe's economy, than the slump in US exports to China during Trump's initial trade 4/

Little known fact (even among economists and trade folks): Europe's exports to China, as a share of China's GDP, are about half of what they were before China joined the WTO (not the expected outcome) 5/

It sort of goes without saying that a lot of this has been driven by auto trade, where China's surplus keeps on rising (now as much because of falling imports as growing dollar exports) 6/

And with EU auto exports to China trending down sharply, the EU's (new) auto deficit with China (this data set includes parts) is rising ... 7/

These dramatic sector shifts are what China's $2 trillion surplus in manufacturing trade means in practice ... 8/

US President Trump now seems more interested in securing soybean and beef (but look at US prices first please!) export deals for an expected fall summit with Xi than in pushing China to rebalance its economy ... 9/

So I at least welcome Europe's new realization that Europe has a clear interest in rebalancing its trade with China, which ultimately requires rebalancing China's own economy. 10/10

@Kendrick_m4 the underlying imbalance is clear if you look at the import side; imports of manufactures are now very very low -- under 5 pp of GPD ex imported electronic parts (chips) that are mostly for reexport and the surplus is thus huge for a large economy. cheers