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Boop.Fun leading the way with a new launchpad on Solana.
ETH (+880bps) and SOL (+640bps) plowing ahead with BTC only +130bps on the day. If we assume Back/whale sold 50k BTC, market was able to absorb almost $6bn of BTC in 24-48hrs. While CTC demand/flows are real and price-insensitive, and the OTC-nature of this selling smooths out the downticks somewhat, this ultimately pulled forward a lot of demand.
Additionally, it’s not crazy to assume that Galaxy, having full visibility into the execution, would have kept the last clip as they effectively created the downticks/local bottom. While they have substantial balance sheet to warehouse this risk, I expect the last clip (10-30%) to trickle out over the next few days. We saw a similar dynamic last year when the German gov’t sold their BTC: much of this hit the books of counterparties with a shorter time horizon/softer hands and it took some time for that flow to recycle through the mkt and find a longer-term home which extended the time we spent in the lower half of the summer range.
All this means we could see BTC chopsolidate for a week until this risk moves its way through. Until then, I believe ETH and SOL will continue their relative outperformance.
h/t @plur_daddy for talking through these points with me
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