The recent U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency market have performed well over the past two weeks, driven by the Israel-Palestine conflict, the Inflation Reduction Act, the extension of tariffs until August 1, and market expectations for interest rate cuts (Trump pressuring Powell in various ways). However, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has quietly risen from 4.1% to over 4.4%, approaching the threshold of 4.6%. As discussed in May, 4.6% is the threshold for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield; the higher it goes, the greater the market pressure, while below this threshold, the market still has support. Ignoring the expectations for interest rate cuts, the US10y has turned upward, indicating that the bond market signals are worth noting. Possible factors to consider: 1) Although the tariff deadline has been postponed, the recent negotiations with various countries have not been smooth. In the past few days, Trump announced an increase in tariffs on Canada, and for Brazil, he has incorporated political issues (pressuring Brazil regarding the trial of former President Bolsonaro by raising tariffs; Bolsonaro was an ally of Trump during his previous term in Latin America). These actions have made bond market institutions uneasy; 2) Next week is a key point with the June CPI data, which will reveal the impact of the already implemented 10% tariffs on inflation. Bond market institutions are preemptively hedging. As mentioned, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is now close to the threshold but still has some distance to go; it is not yet a time to panic, but the subsequent trends need to be taken seriously.