While media attention is rightly focused on the Japan-U.S. trade deal, don't overlook what is happening to the long end of the Japanese bond market where, driven mainly by fiscal concerns, yields continue to climb. With what is a correlated, rather than coordinated, fiscal expansion in the three largest advanced economies -- the US, Germany, and Japan -- global bond markets have a lot of issuance to digest in the period ahead. #economy #markets #debt #deficits #bonds #germany #Japan

Exchanging ideas on global development issues at the ABCE — the Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics. Huge thanks to Indermit Gill and Rachel Glennerster for inviting me to participate. #ancde2025 @WorldBank

While most financial assets have recovered sharply from the early April jitters, the dollar continues to struggle, as reflected in its DXY index (see below). Moreover, it’s not easy to pinpoint what might reverse this trend any time soon. #economy #markets #dollar

This morning, US government criticism of both Federal Reserve Chair Powell and the institution itself has broadened to include "mission creep" and the effectiveness of other officials. The developments of the last few days reinforce my view: If Chair Powell's objective is to safeguard the Fed's operational autonomy (which I deem vital), then he should resign. I recognize this isn't the consensus view, which favors him staying until the end of his tenure in May. Nor is it a first best, which is simply not attainable. Yet, it's better than what is playing out now – growing and broadening threats to Fed independence – and will undoubtedly increase should he remain in office. As to market reaction, most of the frequently mentioned candidates to replace Chair Powell would be able to calm any potential market jitters. #economy #federalreserve #markets

Last week, the UK's delicate economic situation was underscored by challenging employment and inflation data. This morning, the fiscal picture deepened those concerns: Government borrowing for June reached £20.7 billion. Driven by increasing debt service payments, this represents an almost £7 billion increase from last year and marks the second-highest June borrowing on record, surpassed only by 2020. The combination of higher unemployment, persistent inflation, and a widening deficit underscores the policy challenge facing the UK as it embarks on the multi-month process of budget formulation. Yet, prolonged deliberation and uncertainty surrounding the budget's contents risk exacerbating current economic headwinds, potentially leading to even more subdued growth. #economy #UK #markets

Some of the charts from the Financial Times’ article marking six months in office for President Trump’s second term. #economy #markets @FT

Speaking to CNBC's Squawk Box on the Federal Reserve just now, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized Chair Jerome Powell's tenure and said that there is a need to examine "the entire institution" to see if it has been successful. Pointing to the Fed's "many mistakes that have happened," he noted the need to investigate whether "the organization has succeeded in its mission." (Remember the question I posed here last week? As discussed in that post, the longer the tension between President Trump and Chair Powell persists, the greater the long-term risks to the Federal Reserve's operational independence.) @CNBC @SquawkCNBC #economy #federalreserve #markets

The Annual Conference Get-Together: I always gain valuable insights from listening to @Dambisamoyo, @ianbremmer and @Nouriel.

20th July 2019 King's College Chapel - the world's largest fan-vaulted ceiling. Picture from my book 'Cambridge - Time & Space'. Available at and all bookshops.

Honoured to host Dr Mohamed El-Erian at #CambridgeJudge for a fireside chat on growth, innovation & global challenges. Insightful, urgent & inspiring. Watch the recording: #EMBA #GEMBA #Innovation #Startups #ClimateChange @elerianm @KamiarMohaddes