The Fed remains on hold, which in my view is the right thing to do. If neutral is 3.5-4.0% (inflation + 100 bps), the Fed should only cut rates a few times before returning from restrictive to less restrictive to neutral. Anything more is not justified given that inflation remains above target and the jobless rate is below the “full employment” rate (formerly NAIRU). The Taylor rule says the Fed should be slightly above neutral, which is where it is.