Market based measures of inflation are up a lot This is usually when the Fed has to show its commitment to inflation and cool things off What a quaint, vestigial idea of times past

Market based measures of inflation are up a lot This is usually when the Fed has to show its commitment to inflation and cool things off. Stocks then sell off some Instead we have Waller giving speeches like he’s from Turkey. Hard to know what stops the party. Maybe tariffs

What is the bear narrative going to be when housing starts are down 20% in 2H & unemployment stays in the low 4%s with inflation is 3% and rising? The only constant is everyone invents a narrative on why growth is about to weaken and inflation decline so keep that in mind

Do people arguing that housing is going to weaken enough to cause unemployment realize permits are already down 10% Y/Y? Housing is not going to decline enough to push unemployment up or to cause deflation in rents Rates stay higher & housing gets crunched. But gov jobs 🚀

Permits already weak at this point. John Burns cut starts to down 15% for 2025 yesterday What will every “the fed needs to cut” macro bear (de facto inflation pumper) do when housing starts are down 20% & unemployment stays at 4%? Rates won’t come down until the deficit does

These potential Fed Chairmen are debasing themselves so thoroughly that it’s clear they will have no problem debasing the currency.

Yardeni: The PPI report comes with a clear warning label: "The scope of the CPI includes imports. The PPI excludes imports." The PCED measure of consumer prices also includes imports. June's PCED will be reported on July 31. We expect to see it warming up too, from 2.3% to 2.5% y/y, as predicted by the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model (chart). July is also tracking at 2.5%. Furthermore, the Cleveland Fed's model shows the core PCED tracking at 2.7% y/y in both June and July, unchanged from May's inflation rate (chart).

Does anyone know if Zohran can or cannot change the tax code in NYC in 2025? He’s going to win so just planning for it

Open houses in for million dollar houses in North Dallas exurbs are getting comical From BOBA trucks to free champagne to cookies and raffle tickets Anything but lowering the price

Average US family health insurance premium... 2000: $6k 2003: $9k 2006: $11k 2009: $13k 2012: $16k 2015: $18k 2018: $20k 2021: $22k 2024: $26k That's a 342% increase since 1999 (6.1% per year). (Note: US CPI inflation has increased 2.5%/year)