Yardeni: The PPI report comes with a clear warning label: "The scope of the CPI includes imports. The PPI excludes imports." The PCED measure of consumer prices also includes imports. June's PCED will be reported on July 31. We expect to see it warming up too, from 2.3% to 2.5% y/y, as predicted by the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model (chart). July is also tracking at 2.5%. Furthermore, the Cleveland Fed's model shows the core PCED tracking at 2.7% y/y in both June and July, unchanged from May's inflation rate (chart).
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