I think fertility will crash to ≈1.0 within 10 years in *every society* that does not have harsh peer pressure against childless women. This dynamic is not about rising opportunity costs, but about the spreading consensus that children are pointless, so models don't catch that.

I don't care about moralizing or finger pointing. You simply cannot make a case for having a kid that sounds compelling to a normal zoomer woman. The world in the context of which these arguments made sense is outside their consensus reality. They were born to live as teenagers.