The discourse surrounding precipitation changes in a warming climate (both public discussion and even scientific one at times) is complicated by widespread conflation of changes in averages vs extremes (and also actual vs *potential* evaporation/evaporative demand). [Thread]

Increased temperatures rapidly raise the "ceiling" on both precipitation and evaporation intensity--but the same is *not* true for typical/average values of either! Regional mean precipitation can increase or decrease with warming, and actual evaporation is constrained by local H2O availability.

This is the basis for "Expanding Atmospheric Sponge" effect that we coined to help visualize practical implications stemming from more heavier downpours (i.e., flash floods) & also more extreme evaporative demand (e.g., faster-developing droughts, more intense wildfires).