This is a no-firing, no-hiring labor market on our hands. In other words, sclerotic. Jekyll and Hyde. Initial jobless claims at 235k show that businesses are far from embarking on a layoff cycle. But the fact that the mountain of continuing claims has reached a fresh 44-month high of 1.965 million also shows that the swelling ranks of the unemployed are not finding a job. The problem with a complete lack of hiring activity is that if we ever do see layoffs commence, nonfarm payrolls will begin to contract, and the recession that investors attach 0% odds to ends up become a shocking reality.