With the current iteration of the "Big Beautiful Bill", the US is about to create a tax bracket above billionaires: people who bet for a living. I did the math, and my 2024 marginal tax rate would be ~40% under this bill. I'd owe almost another $100k to the government. Poker, sports, horses, whatever. If you bet in the US (or are an American abroad!), the currently written law taxes you more than people who make the same amount. For the most successful, you will be paying tax rates above the highest bracket, above anyone else in the country. What are the details? They're capping the deduction of losses at 90% of those losses. The old way: let's say you had $500k in winnings last year, and you lost/had expenses of $400k. You made $100k. Straight forward. Income taxes on your income. Under the new 90% rule, you can't subtract the $400k, you can only subtract $360k. The government considers you to have made $140k last year, even though you only made $100k. You owe taxes on an extra $40k of phantom, non-existent income. Imagine some random high-volume sports gambler who wins $2m and loses $2m. That person now inexplicably owes taxes on $200k in fake income. This bill is terrible for a lot of reasons, but if this part isn't stricken, then betting as a career in the US is ended for most people. To continue, you would realistically have to move to Puerto Rico or renounce US citizenship if you want to continue. For prediction market traders specifically (few that we are), you could arguably move to a "capital gains" model of income, and potentially skirt around this. That is untested. By the way, this is exactly how online poker was effectively banned in America. The UIGEA was jammed into a must-pass port safety bill (ports as in BOATS) without much warning or fanfare by Bill Frist. UIGEA led to poker's Black Friday 5 years later. TBD who snuck this one in.