The ending of these probes into Polymarket is phenomenal news. Shayne is a real one. He's a genuinely good dude. I'm feeling like I should write a little about this guy, because I am sure his life was hell last November. A few years ago, probably late 2020, in the first convo I ever had with Shayne, I came away from it that he was (yet another) big idea guy who had the silly notion to create a prediction market from scratch. I honestly thought it would fail and didn't take him or Polymarket seriously. Markets like this have been tried and mostly failed over and over and over again. Even on crypto, sites like Augur, Catnip, BetMoose (yes, that is a real name), along with dozens of companies you've never heard of. Some sort of succeeded, for short periods of time. But none of them ever REALLY lived up to the potential or vision. So my initial report back on the Polymarket team to friends was: idealistic kids, in over their heads, don't bother joining. But what I didn't realize after that first conversation was how singularly obsessed Shayne was with bringing all of this to life. It wasn't just some random business idea from an incubator: he was a true believer in the whole enterprise. He had a vision for what he wanted this company to be, and he was implementing it. Brick by brick. From when I made my first deposit to Polymarket in 2021 of $100 (still convinced it would probably fail) all the way through me doing hundreds of millions of dollars in volume in 2024, Shayne was messaging me on a constant basis: how do I make this site better. Over and over and over again. Always trying to improve. Always trying to grow. Never content. Focused on the big picture. If you compare Polymarket in 2021 to how it exists in 2025, it is unrecognizably more professional, more sophisticated, and more complex. And the crazy part is: it is all on the blockchain. They had to invent half of the features and capabilities on the site, because it didn't otherwise exist (and shout out to the team of engineers who made it happen). Shayne also told me in the early days, circa 2021 -- me, just a decently successful PredictIt bettor who fell into doing this as a mildly successful career -- prediction markets are going to be big, you're going to make a lot of money, and people are going to know who you are (relatively speaking lol). And my reaction was to laugh. What a dumb thing to say. This was such a niche space. It was an oddity. There was enough money for a decent living and that was it. In real world terms, the absolute pinnacle of the career would be a lightly used Audi and a mortgage payment. But not only was he correct in his promises, but he is the one who built it. Telling people I do prediction markets has gone from "...wtf is that?" to "...oh, like Polymarket?" in the span of a few years. Shayne did that. So when this genuinely good dude had his door busted down in November, I was shocked. There's so much casual criming going on in the world that I couldn't believe that anyone had the time or resources for THAT. Ridiculous. I'm not normally one for conspiracies, but the whole thing did - and still does - seem at least a little politically motivated to me. So full credit to this guy for weathering that storm, for getting through it. I am sure it wasn't remotely easy. And if you're wondering whether it has deterred him or changed him at all? Answer: I've received 30+ messages in the past week from Shayne with ideas on how to further improve the site.

Fun conversation. The interviewer didn't realize he had personally lost me $5k last year when he shouted a question at Trump 😂

With the current iteration of the "Big Beautiful Bill", the US is about to create a tax bracket above billionaires: people who bet for a living. I did the math, and my 2024 marginal tax rate would be ~40% under this bill. I'd owe almost another $100k to the government. Poker, sports, horses, whatever. If you bet in the US (or are an American abroad!), the currently written law taxes you more than people who make the same amount. For the most successful, you will be paying tax rates above the highest bracket, above anyone else in the country. What are the details? They're capping the deduction of losses at 90% of those losses. The old way: let's say you had $500k in winnings last year, and you lost/had expenses of $400k. You made $100k. Straight forward. Income taxes on your income. Under the new 90% rule, you can't subtract the $400k, you can only subtract $360k. The government considers you to have made $140k last year, even though you only made $100k. You owe taxes on an extra $40k of phantom, non-existent income. Imagine some random high-volume sports gambler who wins $2m and loses $2m. That person now inexplicably owes taxes on $200k in fake income. This bill is terrible for a lot of reasons, but if this part isn't stricken, then betting as a career in the US is ended for most people. To continue, you would realistically have to move to Puerto Rico or renounce US citizenship if you want to continue. For prediction market traders specifically (few that we are), you could arguably move to a "capital gains" model of income, and potentially skirt around this. That is untested. By the way, this is exactly how online poker was effectively banned in America. The UIGEA was jammed into a must-pass port safety bill (ports as in BOATS) without much warning or fanfare by Bill Frist. UIGEA led to poker's Black Friday 5 years later. TBD who snuck this one in.

The June Fed decision has eclipsed $100m in volume on Polymarket, up from $88m in May. Kalshi also is now doing large volume, powered by retail flow from Robinhood. These markets are gigantic and still growing. Plus, they're more accurate than CME pricing! And yet the news still quotes CME for ??? reasons.

Short-ish thread. In the past 24 hours, I've seen the promise and the peril of prediction markets. First, the promise -- immediately after the Fed announcement at 2pm today, as economists and a former Fed vice chair were talking about what was new in the statement on Bloomberg TV, and one of the commentators said (paraphrasing): "the recession odds on Polymarket should probably be around 60% after that statement." It was said seemlessly in the conversation, without fanfare, and probably understood by almost everyone watching. The site is close to a household name among people following the news. That is really cool. Integrating important prediction markets on important information can help people make sense of the world. It's a great thing! Meanwhile, back in the muddy trenches, you had another clustercuss of a market resolution that illustrates the (very stupid) peril.

Absolutely incredible

If you're interested in betting on anything as a serious endeavor, a few recommended reads: -Thinking, Fast and Slow -Intelligent Investor Ch 8 -Fortune's Formula -Cracking the Code - -Deep Value -Big Short/Moneyball -When Genius Failed -Superforecasting