Inflation expectations play a central in determining inflation, so you can get a virtuous cycle where low inflation expectations create low inflation, just as you can get a vicious cycle. Central bank independence can help lock in the virtuous cycle, so it's all gain, no pain.

What is central bank independence, and why does it matter? A bit of econ 101 to help you follow the implications of Trump's ongoing threats to fire the Fed Chair. #TheProfessorIsIn #TeachEcon

When rumors hit that Trump planned to fire Powell, stocks tanked. Half an hour later, he walked it back, and they rose. And this continued an almost unbroken streak of markets falling when they believe that Trump will follow his instincts, recovering only when he reverses course.

Managing the Epstein scandal appears to have left the White House with enough bandwidth to rename privately-held football teams, but not to resolve any of the global trade uncertainty it has caused.

Steve Jobs reimagined the future. Tim Cook has to reimagine supply chains based on presidential whims. This isn't the story of Apple, but rather a metaphor for the ways crony capitalism is distorting the priorities of American business.

Anyone notice that the White House seems to have given up on sending out "tariff letters"? They've got three-and-a-bit- weeks to send 166 letters, and they just took this week off.

Anyone notice that the White House seems to have given up on sending out "tariff letters"? After failing to get 90 deals in 90 days, they're not even on track to send out 166 (mail merge) letters in 24 days. At the current rate, the last country to learn it's August 1 tariff rate will receive its letter on October 1..

"If you look at page 1 of the tariff handbook, it says: Don't tariff inputs. It's the simplest way to make it harder for Americans to do business. Any factory around the world can get the steel, copper & aluminum it needs without paying a 50% upcharge, except an American factory"

People are miserable. The data isn't. And this disconnect may vanish once the tariffs actually arrive.

Tariffs aren’t instant inflation. Goods take a month at sea, another in customs, and more time in storage. Then you work through the storerooms that businesses filled ahead of time. Only then do new costs hit shelves. So yes, tariffs raise prices—just not right away.