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I've gone on this tangent to a lot of people over the last month, but honestly feels like prediction markets are most likely to see that type of massive, maniacal retail adoption everyone in crypto talks about
People want to bet on things they know, not things they have to learn
22.7. klo 03.15
People want to speculate on things where they think they have a decent chance of winning, and with some effort can form an advantage over the average person (whether that’s actually true or not)
This is true of crypto, sports betting, retail stocks, etc
Once the equilibrium flips and they lose a lot compared to how often they win, most will lose interest, especially when they start feeling the game is rigged against them
I don’t think you need to over complicate the retail thesis more than that. Identify games where the above is true and find an edge
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