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I recalculated China's potential trade diversion to include all regions and control for double-counting. In Q2, China potentially found replacement markets for 82% of its lost exports to the United States on a product-by-product basis.
21.7. klo 03.02
Facing U.S. tariffs, China’s exports to the U.S. are down—while exports to Southeast Asia are up. Is that trade diversion and potential transshipment? My estimate: at most 34% of the increased PRC exports to SE Asia in Q2 could reflect trade diverted from the United States.
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