I think AI is happening fast, but the odds of AGI by the end of *this year* are very clearly <1% Let's not get too carried away. Elon is a known idiot at forecasting. Altman never actually said by EOY, that's just totally made up.

@sjgadler surely you understand though that 'powerful AI' is even more vague and confusing than 'AGI'

@ja3k_ (For clarity I mean <1% Taiwan invasion in six months, ~40% within five years)