Have been watching the vol on Bitcoin drop since January with @volmexfinance BVIV index. Bitcoin volatility compressing always precedes a breakout. Indicating that we could be due for a move to $200k very soon. Here are 5 times vol compression front-ran explosive moves: 🧵

1. July 2020 30D vol: ~25% BTC: $9.2K → $12K → Vol died, then DeFi ignited the first move up.

2.Oct 2020 30D vol: ~22% BTC: $10.5K → $18.5K → MicroStrategy + PayPal = institutional FOMO right after the coil.

3.July 2021 30D vol: ~20% BTC: $29K → $52K → China FUD priced in, US buyers stepped in.

4.Oct 2023 30D vol: ~23% BTC: $27K → $38K → ETF rumors started flying. Market caught offsides.

5.March 2024 30D vol: ~26% BTC: $52K → $73K → Spot ETF flows accelerate. Low vol didn’t last.

With DAT season at scale just starting, this run to $200k could be extremely quick catching everyone off guard. My proxy for how early we are in DATs related to fundraising for SPACs, which at peak were raising close to $20B a month. We are nowhere close to this yet. The time to take profits is certainly not now IMO.