1/ Humanoid robots are not sci-fi anymore. They’re walking into factories & warehouses. We built a model to track how fast they’ll scale globally by 2030. What we found is… hard to ignore. Here’s what’s coming: 🧵

@cot_research 2/ Until recently, humanoids were a stealth R&D curiosity. Now, @Tesla, Figure, @agilityrobotics, Boston Dynamics, and @UnitreeRobotics are actively competing to deploy general-purpose robots in real-world environments. Walking, lifting, grasping, in human spaces.

3/ This marks a major shift: From narrow-task automation… To flexible, mobile, industrial agents. Humanoids are designed to adapt to messy reality: assembly lines, warehouses, even general-purpose labor.

4/ As of mid-2025, there are < few hundred humanoids in active use across the U.S. Tesla, Amazon, GXO, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and 1X are all running live pilots. Not just demos. Robots on-site, doing actual work.

5/ The adoption curve will follow a familiar pattern: A factory starts with 20 units. It works. They order 100 more. By then, competitors are calling the same vendors to catch up. This is the “First Wave” moment.

6/ In 2026, those 2025 success stories will multiply. @Figure_robot and @Apptronik will sign new customers, each ordering another 20-50 units for their own pilots. Low-volume manufacturing ramps to support 100s of units per year.