You Heard It Here First. Friedberg's Most Contrarian Belief for 2025: "A dramatic rise  in socialist movements in the US." According to Polymarket, Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani has closed a massive gap on Andrew Cuomo over the past month for the Democratic nomination for NYC Mayor. Mamdani's chances jumped from ~6% to 55%, while Cuomo fell from 93% to 45%. On June 23, Mamdani surged ahead of Cuomo after a surprise poll showed him ahead. This tracks Friedberg's 2025 prediction of a "dramatic rise  in socialist movements in the US." Here was his explanation in early January: " My contrarian belief is that we'll see a rise, a dramatic rise, in socialist movements in 2025 in the United States." "And I think that some industries and some companies are going to be huge winners and some companies are going to be huge losers." "There's gonna be some parts of the economy that are gonna be big winners and some parts of the economy that are gonna be big losers." "When you have this sort of a change this fast, there are often large contingents of people that are left behind." "And when that happens, I do think that the socialist policies and the socialist movements gain steam."