I love this place Market goes down: Wait for confirmation, buy strength not weakness, risk management first Market goes sideways: Don’t diddle in the middle, log off and touch grass, don’t get chopped up Market goes up: Don’t chase, don’t FOMO, there will be dips but also if you’re not allocated it’s over for you forever and this thing is never pulling back

Did I buy the Bitcoin bottom? No. Did I trade this breakout perfectly? No. But did I carefully buy enough spot Bitcoin in the last few months to allow me to relax and ride this trend without FOMO? Also no.

I’ve traded 8 of the last 0 Bitcoin breakouts and I’m almost out of money GM

Bitcoin treasury companies, but the price of Bitcoin actually goes up Who is building this

In previous cycles, BTC strength was positive for alts because the pool of buyers was crypto-native and you could reasonably assume they’ll roll profits and rotate to other stuff eventually So a lot of altcoin front running would take place and BTC pullbacks/consolidations provided good opportunities to buy alts BTC strength would create a ‘wealth effect’ for crypto as a whole and the velocity of money would go up across crypto as a whole This cycle, the pool of buyers are primarily BTC-focused and don’t care about altcoins There’s no direct wealth effect to benefit altcoins, so the non-BTC crypto natives end up PvPing themselves to front run a rotation that hasn’t happened There’s an important lesson here: We were tricked and we fell for it. Investigate Michael Saylor immediately.

We bottomed during peak tariff fear and stopped going up when a deal was announced There’s an important lesson here: Trading is a scam and I got liquidated

GM I missed the entire rally, so you should totally listen to me about risk management and profit-taking

As an average retail crypto punter, your sources of edge are likely to involve: Size - Getting in/out without significant slippage or market impact, trading shittier and less efficient markets with dumber and/or more insensitive counterparties. Time - No weird quarterly reports, fixed time period rebalancing, risk managers and investors breathing down your neck. Drawdown and volatility tolerance - Being able to stomach drawdowns and volatility spikes (as long as you don’t get liquidated) without being forced to close or rebalance to save face or stat pad performance reports. Concentration - You’re not forced to diversify for the sake of diversifying. You can concentrate your bets freely and take big swings on specific setups of ideas. Discretion - You can simply not trade, you have the luxury of waiting for good opportunities, don’t always have to be deployed/have something to show.

Q1 Crypto: The dog has a hat, hot air rises, vape cabal caught another daily runner Q2 Crypto: Watching this treasury auction to get a read on risk sentiment, the basis trade is blowing up and I’m growing concerned about credit spreads

Alright lads, time to do the thing. Equities nuked, BTC didn’t. What is it?