It is increasingly clear foreign producers are not paying the tariffs. If they were, we'd see falling import prices in today's release (b/c they are reported pre-tariff). Import prices are instead continuing to rise.

Some folks suggested that prices not *rising* enough to offset USD declines suggests foreign producers absorbing the tariffs. But for foreign producers to absorb the *tariff* cost, their prices pre-tariff have to *fall in USD terms* to offset the cost once the tariff is applied

Foreign producers may be absorbing the *additional* impact of the falling USD in their profits. But even that may not be true. The USD has only fallen 4% on a TWI basis y/y which would typically have a 1% impact given normal 0.25 beta & prices are already up 1% this year.