Trendaavat aiheet
#
Bonk Eco continues to show strength amid $USELESS rally
#
Pump.fun to raise $1B token sale, traders speculating on airdrop
#
Boop.Fun leading the way with a new launchpad on Solana.
Regarding the U.S. June CPI to be announced tomorrow night: Currently, institutions have a consistent expectation of a year-on-year CPI and core CPI at 2.7% and 3% respectively, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% for both. Looking back, the Cleveland Fed's inflation forecast, which has been highly accurate in the past, predicts the June CPI and core CPI to be 2.64% (the U.S. official usually rounds to 2.6%) and 2.95% (rounded to 3%), with month-on-month increases of 0.25% and 0.23% respectively.
If the Cleveland Fed's prediction accuracy remains intact this time, it would mean that June's U.S. inflation is higher than the previous value but slightly lower than expected (the core CPI year-on-year meets expectations). How will the market react?
There should be fluctuations in the main market, which will weaken the upward momentum but not reverse it completely; it is likely to be a consolidation phase because "greed is always harder to reverse than fear." Market sentiment may still consider this a one-time rebound, and then we will see what the final outcome of the tariffs will be.
Last weekend, Trump sent tariff letters to the EU, Mexico, and Canada. From the reactions of the parties involved (both the EU and Mexico have expressed their intention to reach an agreement before August), this has led the market to believe that the TACO trade will continue. The unexpected future lies in whether the conditions will ultimately not be met, and if Trump really enforces the tax rates mentioned in the tariff letters on August 1, the market will need to recalibrate.
12.7. klo 15.02
The recent U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency market have performed well over the past two weeks, driven by the Israel-Palestine conflict, the Inflation Reduction Act, the extension of tariffs until August 1, and market expectations for interest rate cuts (Trump pressuring Powell in various ways). However, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has quietly risen from 4.1% to over 4.4%, approaching the threshold of 4.6%. As discussed in May, 4.6% is the threshold for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield; the higher it goes, the greater the market pressure, while below this threshold, the market still has support. Ignoring the expectations for interest rate cuts, the US10y has turned upward, indicating that the bond market signals are worth noting.
Possible factors to consider: 1) Although the tariff deadline has been postponed, the recent negotiations with various countries have not been smooth. In the past few days, Trump announced an increase in tariffs on Canada, and for Brazil, he has incorporated political issues (pressuring Brazil regarding the trial of former President Bolsonaro by raising tariffs; Bolsonaro was an ally of Trump during his previous term in Latin America). These actions have made bond market institutions uneasy; 2) Next week is a key point with the June CPI data, which will reveal the impact of the already implemented 10% tariffs on inflation. Bond market institutions are preemptively hedging.
As mentioned, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is now close to the threshold but still has some distance to go; it is not yet a time to panic, but the subsequent trends need to be taken seriously.
74,61K
Johtavat
Rankkaus
Suosikit