I don't understand the new 50% copper tariffs. They're not going to jumpstart US production, aren't targeted to countries in which we're in a trade war, and will drive up prices on a wide range of essential goods. A couple mines in the US are world-class and economic without the tariffs but have been stuck in permitting hell for years. The NEPA process for Resolution Copper in AZ, the best undeveloped resource in the US, was started in 2012. Other mines are not economic today, would be with a 50% tariff, but no company is going to greenlight their development based on these tariffs. It takes 5-10 years to start production for early stage mines and a similar time just to get payback of investment. Industry has little confidence the tariffs will still be in place when they reach production. There are 2 countries for which copper makes up >1% of total US imports from them: Chile (almost 50%) and Peru (about 10%). Neither country has been singled out by the Administration for unfair trade practices. We do import from Canada and Mexico but it's <1% of total imports from both. All of these countries have been long-standing allies of the US. Meanwhile, copper is an input into building materials, energy infrastructure, vehicles, aircraft, electronics, data centers, etc. Commodities get priced at the margin. This tariff will raise costs for all buyers of copper and will translate into higher costs of many products, all for seemingly little upside.
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