Is the public offering of pumpfun a mindless opportunity to make money or a carefully designed "dumping" trap? After research, it seems that this might be a trade with about a 70% upside and unlimited downside, making the overall risk-reward ratio not that favorable. Here are a few reasons: 1. Timing for extracting liquidity: Pump.fun has delayed its launch multiple times, ultimately deciding on a time window when liquidity is most abundant. If the project aims to control the market and gather chips, there’s no need to choose this moment deliberately; the goal is likely to maximize value extraction at once, rather than for long-term project operation. 2. The issue of high valuation and financing: The public offering is valued at $4 billion, ranking 50th in market cap, with $600 million raised, creating significant selling pressure and no lock-up restrictions. This also includes investors, arbitrage funds, and the project team itself. How many major players are confident they can profit after manipulation, and how much capital do they need to prepare? 3. Special supply for Chinese people: The public offering strictly excludes high-regulation markets like the U.S. and Europe, and instead supports Asia, allowing those with purchasing power to participate directly in the public offering. Who will take over later? Will Americans and Europeans step in? 4. Project fundamentals: Total revenue is $700 million, but income has plummeted by 92% compared to its peak. The problem is the rapid decline of the meme market, and Pump.fun is also struggling to maintain its market share. In this case, a normal valuation of 10 times would already be good, which means a fully diluted valuation of $7 billion, and the project team is almost certainly not considering dividends, making it impossible to support the market cap.