Short-ish thread. In the past 24 hours, I've seen the promise and the peril of prediction markets. First, the promise -- immediately after the Fed announcement at 2pm today, as economists and a former Fed vice chair were talking about what was new in the statement on Bloomberg TV, and one of the commentators said (paraphrasing): "the recession odds on Polymarket should probably be around 60% after that statement." It was said seemlessly in the conversation, without fanfare, and probably understood by almost everyone watching. The site is close to a household name among people following the news. That is really cool. Integrating important prediction markets on important information can help people make sense of the world. It's a great thing! Meanwhile, back in the muddy trenches, you had another clustercuss of a market resolution that illustrates the (very stupid) peril.