Speculating on bubbles also requires looking at the other side of the bubble. Even if you make money, you should still put that money into value investments.

The US stock market has been volatile over the past two days. I'm very curious about who is behind this? Is it really just because various investment banks have raised their expectations?

🧵 1/ On DAT* and BTC/ETH Treasuries *post has consent from @saylor CASE STUDY: $MSTR created the template for crypto treasury. - since 2020 start of $BTC strategy, @MicroStrategy - stock gain from $13 to $455 QUESTION? How much is due to BTC rise vs treasury strategy $BMNR @BitMNR

Roughly figured out the BTCS revolving loan. It is different from other ETH micro-strategies on the market, where ETH is staked or stored on Coinbase after fundraising. BTCS, a company, chose to lend stablecoins with ETH through DeFi protocols such as Aave, and then used the stablecoins to buy more ETH, and then pledged and re-buy, and the current leverage limit here is 40%. That is, deposit 1E, borrow up to 0.4 E equivalent of stablecoin, and use it to buy E. For shareholders, for other ETH microstrategy companies, the annualized return of simply hoarding coins may be 1 – 4% (including staking), but BTCS with 1.3x leverage, the theoretical return will be amplified to more than 5%. If ETH rises even more, the gains will be magnified again. This also helps the market hype about it to be more like a DeFi version of a microstrategy company. But correspondingly, once the price of ETH pulls back sharply, this part of the borrowing may trigger liquidation risk, so it must constantly monitor the market and may cover or reduce positions at any time. These are all clever things that have come up with them, and they are too brilliant.

Seeing all the guys doing $valentine, seize the opportunity to buy $ani $rudi Not getting scammed by a jerk means not spending money on men! Hold tight to the cute little raccoon and the beautiful girl at the front. The little raccoon and ani are the main characters, while the jerks can only stand behind. Don't argue, arguing means you're wrong.

Recently, my biggest regret is $ani, $rudi, and $旺柴. $ani is a big coin that appears at night; by the time I wake up during the day, it's already at 15m. The painful memory of chasing the high makes me hesitant to pursue it. I kept waiting for a pullback, but it never came. I lost out on a narrative, and the emotional and financial aspects of this coin were really good. $rudi was busy last night p-ing that guy's name and completely forgot to buy that certain little kitty. $旺柴, due to my bias against Chinese memes, I missed out on a 50x. Even though I later saw D-ge posting every day, I still didn't want to buy it back. Recently, my on-chain operations have been terrible. When will my luck turn around?

$rklb is currently at 48, and breaking through 50 is just around the corner. I once bought at 12 and sold at 32; this time I bought back at 32 and plan to hold on a bit longer. I've raised my stop-loss level, and I will sell on a pullback, avoiding the mistake of a big sell-off like with crwv.

I spent a lot of money on this man today. When you go online, if your figure isn't good enough or your voice isn't magnetic enough, it will all be in vain.

$GLXY is my largest position, take a minute to read why, I think $100/share is on the table in the next few years and there is ample liquidity to size into this. Here is a short summary of why I believe $GLXY is such a sleeper and significantly undervalued/misunderstood by the market. Myself and some of the @Delphi_Digital guys @3xliquidated @KSimback are working on a more formal report which will dive way deeper but here is a teaser: @novogratz's @galaxyhq is quite a complex business with a ton of different moving parts and that's why I think its very undervalued. If you are willing to hold for 12 months and are bullish on Crypto + AI I think there is a significant rerating incoming. There are 3 main components to Galaxy that need to be understood to grasp its potential 1) The Balance Sheet Galaxy has over $3B in crypto + cash + crypto venture investments on its balance sheet with a market cap of ~$8B. The interesting part about this is 2 fold, firstly all of their crypto venture / infrastructure investments many of which have not been marked up. (@Franchise9494 can give some good color here if you are looking to dive deeper.) Secondly, this extremely strong balance sheet creates a foundation in which Galaxy can build its other business lines off of. Notably Galaxy acquired Helios a MASSIVE data center campus in West Texas with a 2.5GW potential - which could be one of the largest in the US if fully built out and approved, let's chat about that first. 2) The Data Center Business Helios has 800MW of approved power and a 600MW contract signed with CoreWeave $CRWV that will provide $900M a year in average annual revenue, almost all the costs flow through to $CRWV giving Galaxy EXTREMELY attractive economics (better than basically any other Hyperscaler deal out there) with management estimating 90% EBITDA margins. The reason they got such an attractive deal is because unlike other Bitcoin miners Galaxy has a massive balance sheet that they can use to finance the buildout of Helios. The first 800MW build out it will cost them ~$5-6B of Capex which they plan to fund with 20% equity and 80% debt, they have ample cash on the balance sheet and the build out will happen in phases so as MWs come online and CoreWeave starts paying rent they can do a cashout refinancing to help fund the rest of the build out for Helios. To make sure they had enough cash for this + other BTC mining acquisitions they raised $500M at $19/share (I will speak to this more later). Management is expecting no more dilution for this build out given they should be able to do the cash out refinancing + have a strong balance sheet and cash position. Then comes the next 1.7GW of power Galaxy has applied for with Helios. A critical point here is that Helios applied for this additional power with ERCOT back in 2021/2022 when the data center race had not even started yet so they are at the front of the queue for new approvals. Access to power is one of the main hurdles new data centers are facing and Galaxy is in a fantastic position here vs peers when it comes to Helios. Management is expecting approvals in 2 tranches, an 800MW tranche and a 900MW tranche. They have said they are expecting the 800MW tranche to be approved soon (before EOY). Which will bring their total power up to 1.6GW (600MW contracted to $CRWV already) leaving them with 1000MW up for grabs. If they can contract this out to another hyperscaler on the same terms as the CoreWeave deal then it will bring their average annual revenue up to ~$2.4B/year at 90% EBITDA margins, on a company that is only an $8B market cap ($3B of which being assets)! Management on the latest earnings call has also said they are exploring 40+ Bitcoin mining sites that they may look to acquire and convert into AI data centers. This could massively expand Galaxy's power pipeline beyond the 2.5GW at Helios and they have the balance sheet + expertise and partnerships to pull it off. There is a great podcast by @wsfoxley with Brian Wright from Galaxy that dives into the whole data center business, critically he mentions their strong relationship with CoreWeave and multiple other Hyperscalers that could be potential future customers at Helios or other sites Galaxy develops. Again Galaxy's balance sheet meaningfully differentiates them from other Bitcoin miners who typically have very little cash to fund buildouts. If you want to learn more about Galaxy's data center business check out @RHouseResearch's fantastic deep dive - I highly recommend it. If the buildout of Helios is successful this one part of the business could be worth multiples of Galaxy's current market cap, here is a nice table from @RHouseResearch that shows what this may look like: 3) The Crypto Businesses This has been Galaxy's main focus historically and if my memory is correct the split of employees is roughly 650 in the crypto business lines vs 150 in the data center business. There is a lot to unpack here but let me give you the highlights. Galaxy is essentially involved in any activity you could think of that touches crypto: Franchise Trading (Principal liquidity, derivatives, lending & structured products) - $874M loan book (2nd or 3rd largest CeFi lender in all of crypto) - 1,381 trading counterparties with >$10B in trading volume per quarter (cool to see this recent BTC whale using Galaxy to sell their BTC) Investment Banking (M&A advisory, equity and debt capital markets, general advisory) - Advisor to Bitstamp on their sale to $HOOD - Has been an investor and involved in recent treasury deals like $SBET and $BMNR Asset management (Alternatives, Global ETFs/ETPs, Crypto Services) - >$7B of assets on the platform (involved with multiple ETFs) - Won contracts like the FTX estate deal - >$3B in assets staked with them (4th largest validator on Solana, rumored to becoming a $HYPE validator) ^ Involved with lots of these treasury companies and can help them custody + stake assets like $ETH $SOL $HYPE - Galaxy is a go to player for these companies - Just announced an oversubscribed crypto venture fund of $175M Infrastructure Solutions (Staking Solutions, GK8 - custody/tokenization) - Owns GK8 an institutional grade self custody and tokenization platform - Is in a joint venture for @AllUnityStable the first fully regulated EURO stable coin (owns 33%, 33% owned by flow traders and 33% owned by DWS) As you can see Galaxy is involved in basically anything and everything that is interesting with crypto and has laid the foundation to be the go-to institutional partner for traditional finance firms looking to get involved. This is a massive growth business and you need to think what it could be worth to a Goldman Sachs or Blackrock if they wanted to build all this infrastructure out themselves or potentially acquire Galaxy. (Although I asked @novogratz on the recent AMA twitter spaces and he said they are not interested in selling any time soon). Conclusion I hope this gives you a good basic understanding of exactly what Galaxy is doing, I believe it is significantly undervalued due to its complexity. But that my friends is our opportunity. I think Goldman or Morgan Stanley (or another big firm) will put out some research on Galaxy soon to help tell the story and I am pretty confident it is undervalued if you were to sum all the parts together. In the future once Helios is off the ground Galaxy could also spin out its data center business to appeal to that specific investor base. Goldman and Morgan Stanley were the two main underwrites on the recent $500M dollar raise that took place at $19/share - Rossenblatt a smaller firm on the offering put out some research a couple weeks ago - I think the big boys may follow suit soon. Personally Galaxy feels like great R/R here given $19 should act as support from the raise and fundamentally their business's are booming with Crypto going more main stream and the demand for data centers being red hot! Please note this is not financial advice and I am simply sharing my thoughts on Galaxy, I am personally a long term investor in this stock and sincerely believe in its potential.