The recently released U.S. June PPI data all fell short of expectations and were lower than previous values, especially with the PPI and core PPI month-on-month rates both at 0%, significantly below expectations. As the price index at the wholesale level, PPI serves as an upstream indicator for inflation data like CPI and PCE, suggesting that the June PCE data should be quite good, and it even provides a leading indication for July's inflation data. This is positive data for the market. The day before yesterday, I mentioned that "greed is harder to reverse than fear," which undoubtedly boosts market sentiment and future interest rate cut expectations. The PPI (Producer Price Index) has significantly decreased across the board from producers to wholesalers, showing no reflection of tariff impacts. I believe there are two reasons for this: 1. Today’s tweet on "What does Trump really want regarding tariffs?" 2. The weakness in the service sector; the June PPI data falling short of expectations is largely due to the decline in service sector prices. Yesterday's CPI data also showed that the core CPI month-on-month was below expectations.
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qinbafrank
qinbafrank15.7. klo 20.59
The recently released U.S. June CPI data shows that overall inflation is higher than the previous value but meets expectations, while the core CPI month-on-month is lower than expected. The Cleveland Fed's inflation forecast is very close to the actual published data. What do you think? The inflation data is higher than the previous value, but not higher than expected, which has an impact on the market but should not be too significant. It will slightly weaken momentum but has not reached the point of reversal. In the current market sentiment, it may be viewed as a one-time rebound. The slight drop in the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield after the data was released also indicates that the bond market sees the 0.2% month-on-month core CPI as favorable for interest rate cuts. As mentioned last night, "Greed is always harder to reverse than fear."
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