A comeback so good it hurts.

For the beras who read: @knowerofmarkets digs into PoL V2 on the blog.

Really appreciate all of the love on this. Some thoughts on why I believe now is the time to take this leap: Research in crypto has always been a bit of a meme. You could've outperformed all other asset classes in a serious way this past year and a half without ever paying for a crypto research subscription or even reading about the space at all. Any of that brain power could've been spent scanning new token launches in "the trenches" or just bidding Hyperliquid on Thanksgiving Day and logging off for nine months. Just simple stuff that pretty much anyone could have done, without any of the work that you'd put into reading or due diligence. Why do I care to start something new when it's proven to be less than worthwhile, on top of the fact that there are already excellent incumbents like Messari, Delphi, and Blockworks doing great work? The boring answer is that corporations (Stripe and Robinhood to name the two most notable recently) and other large sources of capital are entering the space in very meaningful ways, and I'll say respectfully that the research ecosystem hasn't adapted to these changes just yet. Better put, I haven't seen a research product that's doing something I'm incapable of doing myself. It's time to show that research doesn't have to be boring to the reader, incapable of generating alpha for any type of portfolio, and unoriginal/undifferentiated from what an LLM could spit out in twenty seconds. Good writing should make you excited about the asset class, or the company being analyzed, or the sector under discussion. It shouldn't be something you skim, throw into ChatGPT for a summary, or leave on your bookmark bar for a week. The more truthful answer? I've written countless free reports and spent hundreds - if not thousands - of hours reading others' work over these past four years. I hate to put myself on a pedestal, but if there's anyone who has a chance at making this go well, I'd like to believe I'm the one to take that risk and try my luck. Writing about crypto is what got me to where I am today, and I might be a bit stubborn for thinking it still matters, but it's the truth: it matters a lot to me, and I want to share that with the world. I believe that a quality report written by someone who actually cares about the subject matter goes a long way. Not once have I posted a report without caring deeply about the hours that went into it or the topics discussed, and this has made me appreciate what I do and why I want to take it to the next step. But the most stubborn answer to the question I proposed is simple. I just think I'd be pretty good at running a business, and this makes the most sense right now as I haven't been able to get it out of my head. I'll share more details in the near future as this is a pretty significant undertaking and there's a lot of work ahead of me, but I'm looking forward to bringing it to life.

I’m starting my own crypto native research firm over the next 2-3 months. Thought about this for a while and it’s something I can’t avoid doing any longer, it just makes too much sense. There’s a lot more work that needs done on this, so if I’m quieter than usual, that’s why :)

It would appear that I sold my $SBET calls too early

The ending of these probes into Polymarket is phenomenal news. Shayne is a real one. He's a genuinely good dude. I'm feeling like I should write a little about this guy, because I am sure his life was hell last November. A few years ago, probably late 2020, in the first convo I ever had with Shayne, I came away from it that he was (yet another) big idea guy who had the silly notion to create a prediction market from scratch. I honestly thought it would fail and didn't take him or Polymarket seriously. Markets like this have been tried and mostly failed over and over and over again. Even on crypto, sites like Augur, Catnip, BetMoose (yes, that is a real name), along with dozens of companies you've never heard of. Some sort of succeeded, for short periods of time. But none of them ever REALLY lived up to the potential or vision. So my initial report back on the Polymarket team to friends was: idealistic kids, in over their heads, don't bother joining. But what I didn't realize after that first conversation was how singularly obsessed Shayne was with bringing all of this to life. It wasn't just some random business idea from an incubator: he was a true believer in the whole enterprise. He had a vision for what he wanted this company to be, and he was implementing it. Brick by brick. From when I made my first deposit to Polymarket in 2021 of $100 (still convinced it would probably fail) all the way through me doing hundreds of millions of dollars in volume in 2024, Shayne was messaging me on a constant basis: how do I make this site better. Over and over and over again. Always trying to improve. Always trying to grow. Never content. Focused on the big picture. If you compare Polymarket in 2021 to how it exists in 2025, it is unrecognizably more professional, more sophisticated, and more complex. And the crazy part is: it is all on the blockchain. They had to invent half of the features and capabilities on the site, because it didn't otherwise exist (and shout out to the team of engineers who made it happen). Shayne also told me in the early days, circa 2021 -- me, just a decently successful PredictIt bettor who fell into doing this as a mildly successful career -- prediction markets are going to be big, you're going to make a lot of money, and people are going to know who you are (relatively speaking lol). And my reaction was to laugh. What a dumb thing to say. This was such a niche space. It was an oddity. There was enough money for a decent living and that was it. In real world terms, the absolute pinnacle of the career would be a lightly used Audi and a mortgage payment. But not only was he correct in his promises, but he is the one who built it. Telling people I do prediction markets has gone from "...wtf is that?" to "...oh, like Polymarket?" in the span of a few years. Shayne did that. So when this genuinely good dude had his door busted down in November, I was shocked. There's so much casual criming going on in the world that I couldn't believe that anyone had the time or resources for THAT. Ridiculous. I'm not normally one for conspiracies, but the whole thing did - and still does - seem at least a little politically motivated to me. So full credit to this guy for weathering that storm, for getting through it. I am sure it wasn't remotely easy. And if you're wondering whether it has deterred him or changed him at all? Answer: I've received 30+ messages in the past week from Shayne with ideas on how to further improve the site.

I haven't shilled anything in a while but I am currently very serious about my $UBER puts and $RBLX calls in case anyone has wondered what I am up to, that's all

Just blasting yacht rock today

today is my birthday so here’s the official soft launch of @metagametrade after four years (!!) full time in crypto, i have officially hit crypto retirement age metagame is a productized reflection on how the internet has changed how we relate to each other, how crypto has allowed us to monetize parasocial relationships and catalyze movements, but beyond that it’s going to be really fucking fun (@tomigotchi_ and i have had a delightful time designing it) working on other products meant thinking of all the paths to failure and how to sidestep, the interesting mental switch has been allowing myself to succumb to unbounded optimism up only to the teams i love and care about, mediocrity for the haters momentum is a moat best job i ever had 🙂↔️